Nifty Weekly Analysis for the week ending 24 November 2017

Sensex opened the week at 33366, made a high of 33739, low of 33288 and closed the week at 33679. Thus it closed the week with a gain of 336 points (1.01%). At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 10287, made a high of 10404, low of 10261 and closed the week at 10389. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a gain of 106 points (1.03%)

Let us discuss few observations on last week Indian benchmark movements. 

1. Last week we have discussed “Holding 50% Fibo level indicates strength of the market.   Protecting Wednesdays low of 10094 / 32684 is important for Nifty and Sensex for further upmove..”  Benchmark index protected Last Wednesday’s low.  Nifty gained 310 points which is 78% of the fall.  At the same time Sensex gained 1054 points which 89% of the fall in 7 days.    
2. Nifty closed well above all important moving averages.  
3. On Weekly Chart, both Sensex and Nifty made a bullish follow up candle to last week’s hammer type candle.
4. In the coming week, we have expiry  coming  up for current derivate series.   Also monthly closing also on the coming week.   Both happening on Thursday.  
5. Looking at the Bank Nifty chart, which is making a bullish flag type chart pattern.              
6. On Daily Chart MACD nearing a bullish crossover and Stochastic reached in the oversold region..  . 
7. Global financial markets: Except the Chinese financial markets, all global indices registered gains over the week
8. On Weekly basis, FII were buyers in the cash segment. 
9. Options data for November series indicate highest Call Open Interest is at the strike of 10500 whereas the highest Put build-up has shifted higher at 10300. Thus Options data suggests a very narrow trading range with resistance at 10500 & support at 10300.  There is a huge  addition of Open Interest at 10400 put strike and we can see unwinding of open interest on all call strike, which indicate bullishness of the market. 

Nifty Weekly Analysis for the week ending 17 November 2017

Sensex opened the week at 33397, made a high of 33520, low of 32684 and closed the week at 33343. Thus it closed the week with a gain of 28 points (0.08%).  . At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 10322, made a high of 10344, low of 10094 and closed the week at 10284. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a loss of 38 points (-0.37%)

Let us discuss few observations on last week Indian benchmark movements. 

1. Last week we have discussed “Nifty corrected 237 points and Sensex corrected 758 points in 4 days.   In previous Correction from 19 Sept. to 28 September, Nifty corrected 491 points and Sensex corrected 1442 points in 7 days.   Correction in August also took 452 point fall in Nifty and 1558 point in Sensex in 7 days .   So if it take same magnitude of previous correction Nifty may move down up to 10000 level  and Sensex may correct up to 32300-32400 level.”.   Timewise Nifty and Sensex took same as previous corrections.  But on pricewise Nifty and Sensex not fell that much.  Nifty and Sensex arrested its fall at 10094 / 32684 level which is almost 50% retracement of upmove from 28 September from 6^th November.  
2. Holding 50% Fibo level indicate strength of the market.   Protecting Wednesdays low of 10094 / 32684 is important for Nifty and Sensex for further upmove.  
3. In two days Nifty retraced 63% and Sensex retraced 71% of 7 days fall indicate bullishness.
4. Nifty closed well above 10 day moving average.   Nifty should  close above 20 day EMA for further upmove.     
5. On Weekly Chart, both Sensex and Nifty made a hammer type candle which also indicate bullishness. As per the candlestick theory, the hammer is a significant bottom reversal pattern and is formed at lows after a reasonable declines.
6. On daily candle, on Friday Nifty and Sensex made a gap up opening but not able to sustain above the opening price, and thus it made a bearish closing.   In order to gain the bullish momentum both Indices should close well above Friday’s  high. 
7. Looking at the Bank Nifty chart, Bank Nifty retraced its fall entirely and made a new record high of 25925.            
8. Divergence always gives a clue.   Last week we have discussed type 2 divergence visible in Oscillators.  On Daily Chart, Stochastic made a bullish crossover. 
9. Global financial markets: Global financial markets ended the week on a mixed note.On Weekly basis, FII were sellers in the cash segment. 
10. Options data for November series indicate highest Call Open Interest is at the strike of 10500 whereas the highest Put build-up is at 10000. Thus Options data suggests a trading range with resistance coming at 10500 & support at 10000.   There is a huge unwinding at 10200 Call Option and huge addition of Open Interest at 10300 Put Option, which indicate bullishness of the market.  

Jet Airways - Bullish Breakout

Jet Airways formed a 2 year long reverse H&S pattern and made a bullish breakout above its sloping trendline resistance. 

Jet Airways made a correction of 60% of its previous rally from 332.6 to 646.

12 week correction is retraced fully in 3 weeks time which indicate bullishness of the stock. 

Jet Airways next resistance is 796 - 800 level.  524.5 is the strong support for the stock. 

The current upmove is with good volume. 

Weekly MACD made a bullish crossover. 

Nifty Weekly Analysis for the week ending 10 November 2017

Sensex opened the week at 33710, made a high of 33866, low of 33108 and closed the week at 33315. Thus it closed the week with a loss of 371 points (-1.1%). At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 10432, made a high of 10490, low of 10254 and closed the week at 10322. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a loss of 131 points (-1.25%).

Let us discuss few observations on last week Indian benchmark movements. 

1. Last week we discussed “On daily chart, Nifty formed a hanging man candlestick pattern, which is a short term reversal pattern. and Sensex made a white body spinning top candle.  To confirm the weakness Market should close below Friday’s low”.   Both Indices broke Friday’s low on Tuesday and made a  Bearish Engulfing pattern, which accelerated further  downfall.   Bullish Gap between Sensex 32804-32670 and 10240-10237 for the Nifty, to act as an immediate Support. 
2. Nifty corrected 237 points and Sensex corrected 758 points in 4 days.   In previous Correction from 19 Sept. to 28 September, Nifty corrected 491 points and Sensex corrected 1442 points in 7 days.   Correction in August also took 452 point fall in Nifty and 1558 point in Sensex in 7 days .   So if it take same magnitude of previous correction Nifty may move down up to 10000 level  and Sensex may correct up to 32300-32400 level.
3. To gain bullish momentum, Indices  should protect Friday’s low and should close above 10 day moving average. .  
4. On Weekly Chart, both Sensex and Nifty made bearish candle comprising a lower low weekly candles after two consecutive bullish candles.
5. Still the primary trend is bullish and we maintain our Double Bottom target of 10600 level.  Close below 9831 validate bearish possibilities. 
6. Looking at the Bank Nifty chart, which is showing strength compared to Nifty and Sensex.  On Thursday, Bank Nifty arrested its fall and made a doji candle.  On Friday, Bank Nifty made a bullish higher high higher low candle.  On weekly chart, bank nifty made a doji type candle and protected previous week low.   PSU Bank Index made a flag pattern and on Friday it made bullish breakout.  But volume is not much convincing.
7. Previous week we have discussed about the negative divergence on RSI weekly and overbought situation on daily chart.  This time Type 2 Divergence is visible Oscillators.     
8. After reaching Nifty P/E level at 26.87 on 3rd November price corrected 237 points in Nifty and P/E level came down to 26.31 on Thursday.  Still the valuation is at high end.  .  All-time high of Nifty P/E is 28.47 in 2000.
9. Global financial markets: Global financial markets ended the week on a mixed note, with Asian markets continuing their gains, while the US and European share markets snapped their winning streaks.
10. On Weekly basis, FII were sellers in the cash segment. 
11. Options data for November series indicate highest Call Open Interest is at the strike of 10500 whereas the highest Put build-up is at 10200. Thus Options data suggests a trading range with resistance coming at 10500 & support at 10200.

Nifty Weekly Analysis for the week ending 03 November 2017

On the monthly chart, Sensex opened the month at 31538, made a high of 33340, low of 31440 and closed the month at 33213 with a gain of 1929 points (5.81 %).  At the same time the Nifty opened the month at 9893, made a high of 10384, low of 9831 and closed the month at 10335. Thus the Nifty closed the month with a gain of 547 points 5.6%). 

Sensex opened the week at 33260, made a high of 33734, low of 33164 and closed the week at 33686. Thus it closed the week with a gain of 528 points (1.59%). At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 10354, made a high of 10462, low of 10324 and closed the week at 10452. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a gain of 129 points (1.25%).

Let us discuss few observations on last week Indian benchmark movements. 

1. On monthly chart, in August and September, Nifty and Sensex formed two consecutive monthly bearish candles since December 2016.   Sensex and Nifty negated these bearish possibilities by closing well above its high and made highest record closing of all time. .  The closure above previous two months signals the conclusion of secondary consolidation and continuation of primary uptrend. 
2. On monthly chart, Sensex made the highest monthly closing since March 2016.  At the same, Nifty made its highest monthly closing since July 2017.
3. On Weekly Chart, Nifty made 5 consecutive higher high weekly candles and two consecutive bullish candles. Both Indices closed the week at record high.
4. We have discussed about Double Bottom Breakout target in my previous posts.  So our target is 10600 level and support is shifted from 9687 to 9831.  So closing below 9831 validate bearish possibilities. 
5. Bank Nifty, Sensex Inter-Market bearish divergence was negated by breaking its all-time high. This gives more bullish direction to the market.  .   
6. Last week, both the indices made one more Bullish Gap between 33340-33294 for the Sensex and 10383-10367 for the Nifty. This is the second Bullish Gap in last two weeks. Besides acting as strong Support, this Gap can also be considered as a Measuring Gap. Thus as per Gap theory, the target falls at Sensex 34322 and 10627 for the Nifty
7. On daily chart, Nifty formed a hanging man candlestick pattern, which is a short term reversal pattern. and Sensex made a white body spinning top candle.  To confirm the weakness Market should close below Friday’s low. 
8. Weekly MACD made a positive cross-over.   
9. Nifty P/E level reached 26.87 on Friday.  All-time high of Nifty P/E is 28.47 in 2000.
10. Global financial markets: Global Markets ended the week on a positive note.  Japan index spiked above 22,000 levels for the first time since 1996.  Benchmark index in Germany and Britain touched record highs during the week.
11. On Weekly basis, FII were sellers in the cash segment. 
12. Options data for November series indicate highest Call Open Interest is at the strike of 10500 whereas the highest Put build-up is at 10000. Thus Options data suggests a trading range with resistance coming at 10500 & support at 10000. Compared to Put side Call side Option Open Interest is low, indicate more bullish outlook.   

Sail - Bull Call Spread Target 2 achieved

SAIL Bull Call Spread trade is now running in a profit of 15,000.  Book full profit. 

Jain Irrigation - Symmetrical Triangle Breakout

Jain Irrigation made a symmetrical triangle breakout.   It took almost 6 months to form the triangle.

Triangle Target is 140-145 level.  If the stock close below 91 level close the trade.