Nifty Weekly Analysis for the week ending 23 March 2018

Sensex opened the week at 33269, made a high of 33355, low of 32484 and closed the week at 32597. Thus it closed the week with a loss of 580 points (-1.75%). At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 10215, made a high of 10227, low of 9952 and closed the week at 9998. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a loss of 197 points (-1.93%).

Let us discuss few observations on last week/month Indian benchmark movements. 

1. On the daily charts, both Sensex and Nifty have made a gap down opening candle and closed well below 200 day ema.
2. On the weekly charts, both the indices have formed a big black body candle.  
3. Nifty / Sensex made four consecutive straight weekly negative candle.  Since 2016 Nifty made maximum 4 consecutive weekly negative candles.
4. Last week we have mentioned “This week low of 10180 and previous week low 10142 is a crucial support.   200 day SMA also coincide with this.  200 day SMA is 10158 and 200 day EMA is 10112.”.  Nifty closed well below the level mentioned above.  
5.    I have mentioned in my post dated 2^nd February 2018, point no.6, "Nifty can go down till 10000 level.  Falling below that level indicate serious trend reversal.”  Nifty  closed well below 10000 level.  So more down side expected in coming weeks.  Immediate support comes around 9900 level which is 38.2% of uprise of last one year.   9700 level seems very strong support which acted as a double bottom during August September 2017 periods. 
6. In 2016 correction, Nifty corrected 50% of rise from 6985 to 8968.5.   So for the current correction, 50% retracement of last one year comes around 9450-9500 level.   I am not foresee any further correction from these levels. 
7. In 2016 correction took 4 months.  Now we are on a 2^nd month of correctioin.  So an other two more month of correction is possible. 
8. On upside, 200 DMA will act as a an immediate resistance. 
9. India Vix closed the week at 15.55.
10. Options data for March series indicate highest Call Open Interest is now at the strike of 10500 whereas the highest Put build-up is at the strike of 10000.  At the same time huge unwinding seen at put option strike 10100 and 10200 and adding up of open interest seen at put strike 9900.   On Call side there is a huge addition of open interest seen at strike of 10100 and 10000.  Addition and unwinding open interest indicate bearishness of the market.
11. Global financial markets: Global Market closed the week on a negative note. 
12. FIIS are net buyers this week on cash segment.  
13. Coming week will be a shorter week as Thursday and Fridays are trading holidays.