Nifty Weekly Analysis for the week ending 16 March 2018

Sensex opened the week at 33468, made a high of 34077, low of 33119 and closed the week at 33176. Thus it closed the week with a loss of 131 points (-0.39%). At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 10301, made a high of 10478, low of 10180 and closed the week at 10195. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a loss of 31 points (-0.31%).

Let us discuss few observations on last week/month Indian benchmark movements. 

1. On the daily charts, both Sensex and Nifty have formed a big Opening Black body Marubuzo, which is a strong bearish pattern.
2. On the weekly charts, both the indices have formed a small body with a long upper shadow, which indicates selling at higher levels.  
3. The benchmark Nifty on Friday posted its second-worst single-day fall of 2018.
4. Nifty / Sensex made three consecutive straight weekly negative candle
5. Even Nifty / Sensex made a weekly negative candle, managed to protect previous week low of 10142 level.  But closed below previous week close of 10226.85, which give more dominance to bears and chances of bears dominance will continue in coming weeks. 
6. Nifty made a small loss of 30 points on weekly basis. But the Volatility is also a serious concern.  Vix opened the week at 14.53, made high of 15.62, low of 11.3 and closed the week at 15.22, (4.75%)
7. This week low of 10180 and previous week low 10142 is a crucial support.   200 day SMA also coincide with this.  200 day SMA is 10158 and 200 day EMA is 10112. 
8. 27 month long upward trendline support comes  around 10000-10040 range.   As I have mentioned in my post dated 2^nd February 2018, point no.6, Nifty can go down till 10000 level.  Falling below that level indicate serious trend reversal. 
9. For Nifty immediate resistance is placed around 10400-10500 level. 
10. Options data for March series indicate highest Call Open Interest is now at the strike of 10500 whereas the highest Put build-up is at the strike of 10000.  At the same time highest call option addition seen at 10200 and 10300 strike, which indicate that 10200/10300 level will act as a strong resistance in coming week.  Thus Options data suggests a trading range with resistance at 10500 & support at 10000.
11. Global financial markets: Global Market closed the week on a mixed note. 
12. FIIS are net sellers this week.