Nifty Weekly Analysis for the week ending 28 March 2018

Sensex opened the week at 32536, made a high of 33371, low of 32515 and closed the week at 32969. Thus it closed the week with a gain of 372 points (1.14%). At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 9989, made a high of 10208, low of 9959 and closed the week at 10114. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a gain of 116 points (1.16%).  This was their first gain in five weeks

Let us discuss few observations on last week/month Indian benchmark movements. 

1. On the daily charts, First day of the week both indices have formed a big white body candle.   On the next day, Indices made a gap up opening and made a doji candle.  On Wednesday both the indices have formed a small black body candle after a gap down opening.  Fall has happened near 9 weeks long down trending resistance channel.
2. On the weekly charts, both Sensex and Nifty formed a white body candle forms a Tweezer Bottom candle.   Tweezer bottom formed near an important level near 27 month long upward trendline support. 
3. On point no.3 of last week report I have mentioned “Nifty / Sensex made four consecutive straight weekly negative candle.  Since 2016 Nifty made maximum 4 consecutive weekly negative candles.”.   History repeated, after 4 consecutive weekly negative candle, Index made a bull candle.
4. On the monthly charts, both the indices have formed a Bearish candle in continuation of Bearish Engulfing pattern last month.  
5. On monthly chart, Nifty managed to close above 27 month long upward trending line and closed above psychological level of 10000.
6. On quarterly chart, both indices made a black candle.  In 27 month long uptrend, this is the second time Indices made quarterly bearish candle.
7. For the coming week, last week low and high will act as an immediate support and resistance.  
8. India Vix closed the week at 15.76.
9. Options data for April series indicate highest Call Open Interest is now at the strike of 10500 whereas the highest Put build-up still remains at the strike of 10000. Thus Options data suggests a trading range with resistance at 10500 & support at 10000
10. Global financial markets: Global Market closed the week on a positive note. 
11. FIIS are net sellers this week on cash segment.  

Nifty Weekly Analysis for the week ending 23 March 2018

Sensex opened the week at 33269, made a high of 33355, low of 32484 and closed the week at 32597. Thus it closed the week with a loss of 580 points (-1.75%). At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 10215, made a high of 10227, low of 9952 and closed the week at 9998. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a loss of 197 points (-1.93%).

Let us discuss few observations on last week/month Indian benchmark movements. 

1. On the daily charts, both Sensex and Nifty have made a gap down opening candle and closed well below 200 day ema.
2. On the weekly charts, both the indices have formed a big black body candle.  
3. Nifty / Sensex made four consecutive straight weekly negative candle.  Since 2016 Nifty made maximum 4 consecutive weekly negative candles.
4. Last week we have mentioned “This week low of 10180 and previous week low 10142 is a crucial support.   200 day SMA also coincide with this.  200 day SMA is 10158 and 200 day EMA is 10112.”.  Nifty closed well below the level mentioned above.  
5.    I have mentioned in my post dated 2^nd February 2018, point no.6, "Nifty can go down till 10000 level.  Falling below that level indicate serious trend reversal.”  Nifty  closed well below 10000 level.  So more down side expected in coming weeks.  Immediate support comes around 9900 level which is 38.2% of uprise of last one year.   9700 level seems very strong support which acted as a double bottom during August September 2017 periods. 
6. In 2016 correction, Nifty corrected 50% of rise from 6985 to 8968.5.   So for the current correction, 50% retracement of last one year comes around 9450-9500 level.   I am not foresee any further correction from these levels. 
7. In 2016 correction took 4 months.  Now we are on a 2^nd month of correctioin.  So an other two more month of correction is possible. 
8. On upside, 200 DMA will act as a an immediate resistance. 
9. India Vix closed the week at 15.55.
10. Options data for March series indicate highest Call Open Interest is now at the strike of 10500 whereas the highest Put build-up is at the strike of 10000.  At the same time huge unwinding seen at put option strike 10100 and 10200 and adding up of open interest seen at put strike 9900.   On Call side there is a huge addition of open interest seen at strike of 10100 and 10000.  Addition and unwinding open interest indicate bearishness of the market.
11. Global financial markets: Global Market closed the week on a negative note. 
12. FIIS are net buyers this week on cash segment.  
13. Coming week will be a shorter week as Thursday and Fridays are trading holidays. 

Nifty Weekly Analysis for the week ending 16 March 2018

Sensex opened the week at 33468, made a high of 34077, low of 33119 and closed the week at 33176. Thus it closed the week with a loss of 131 points (-0.39%). At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 10301, made a high of 10478, low of 10180 and closed the week at 10195. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a loss of 31 points (-0.31%).

Let us discuss few observations on last week/month Indian benchmark movements. 

1. On the daily charts, both Sensex and Nifty have formed a big Opening Black body Marubuzo, which is a strong bearish pattern.
2. On the weekly charts, both the indices have formed a small body with a long upper shadow, which indicates selling at higher levels.  
3. The benchmark Nifty on Friday posted its second-worst single-day fall of 2018.
4. Nifty / Sensex made three consecutive straight weekly negative candle
5. Even Nifty / Sensex made a weekly negative candle, managed to protect previous week low of 10142 level.  But closed below previous week close of 10226.85, which give more dominance to bears and chances of bears dominance will continue in coming weeks. 
6. Nifty made a small loss of 30 points on weekly basis. But the Volatility is also a serious concern.  Vix opened the week at 14.53, made high of 15.62, low of 11.3 and closed the week at 15.22, (4.75%)
7. This week low of 10180 and previous week low 10142 is a crucial support.   200 day SMA also coincide with this.  200 day SMA is 10158 and 200 day EMA is 10112. 
8. 27 month long upward trendline support comes  around 10000-10040 range.   As I have mentioned in my post dated 2^nd February 2018, point no.6, Nifty can go down till 10000 level.  Falling below that level indicate serious trend reversal. 
9. For Nifty immediate resistance is placed around 10400-10500 level. 
10. Options data for March series indicate highest Call Open Interest is now at the strike of 10500 whereas the highest Put build-up is at the strike of 10000.  At the same time highest call option addition seen at 10200 and 10300 strike, which indicate that 10200/10300 level will act as a strong resistance in coming week.  Thus Options data suggests a trading range with resistance at 10500 & support at 10000.
11. Global financial markets: Global Market closed the week on a mixed note. 
12. FIIS are net sellers this week.  

Nifty Weekly Analysis for the week ending 09 March 2018

Sensex opened the week at 34034, made a high of 34060, low of 32991 and closed the week at 33307. Thus it closed the week with a loss of 739 points (-2.17%). At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 10428, made a high of 10441, low of 10142 and closed the week at 10227. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a loss of 231 points (-2.21%).

Let us discuss few observations on last week/month Indian benchmark movements. 

1. On the weekly charts, both the indices have formed a big Opening Black body Marubuzo, and closed well below previous four weeks candles .
2. Last week we have discussed “Nifty in a formation of bearish pennant pattern.  On breakdown below 10300 on closing basis, it will result in the resumption of the down move. Hence, as long as the market consolidates without such a breakdown, chances of a breakout will remain higher with a target of 10,800 levels.”.  Nifty closed below 10300 level on Tuesday.  On Wednesday Nifty turned negative further and made a low of 10141.5.   Wednesday’s low of 10141.5 will act as an immediate support  and 10450 -  10535 will act as a strong resistance. 
3. In 25 days from 29 Jan, Nifty made a fall of 103  points which is 90% retracement from 1033 to 11171.  Now Nifty on a pull back from 10141.5 to 10296.7.  50% of retracement from entire fall comes around 10650 level and 61.8% retracement level comes around 10771 level.
4. India Vix closed the week at 14.53.
5. Options data for March series indicate highest Call Open Interest is now at the strike of 10500 whereas the highest Put build-up is at the strike of 10000. Thus Options data suggests a trading range with resistance at 10500 & support at 10000.
6. Global financial markets: Global Stock trimmed its Losses after robust US Jobs Data 
7. FIIS are net sellers this week.  

Nifty Weekly Analysis for the week ending 01 March 2018

Sensex opened the week at 34226, made a high of 34611, low of 34016 and closed the week at 34047. Thus it closed the week with a loss of 95 points (-0.28%). At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 10527, made a high of 10632, low of 10447 and closed the week at 10458. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a loss of 33 points (-0.31%).

Let us discuss few observations on last week/month Indian benchmark movements. 

1. On the daily charts, both Sensex and Nifty have formed a small black body candle with upper shadow and made lower high, lower low pattern on daily chart.
2. On the weekly charts, both the indices have formed small black body candle with an upper shadow. The upper shadow is indicative of selling pressure at higher levels.
3. On the monthly charts, Nifty has formed a Bearish Engulfing pattern.
4. In February, Sensex posts worst loss in two years. 
5. Bearishness is visible  across daily, weekly as well as monthly timeframes.
6. Nifty in a formation of bearish pennant pattern.  On breakdown below 10300 on closing basis, it will result in the resumption of the down move. Hence, as long as the market consolidates without such a breakdown, chances of a breakout will remain higher with a target of 10,800 levels.
7. The midcap and smallcap indexes underperformed the benchmark index.
8. Last week we have discussed “For Nifty strong resistance comes near 10613 level which is the high of engulfing bearish candle made on 16 Feb 2018.  Also 50d SMA also placed around 10610.  Next strong resistance for Nifty comes around 10830 level which is 61.8% retracement from the recent decline – 11171 to 10276.”.  Nifty struggled in 10600 area and made a high of 10632 but unable to close  above 50 SMA level.. 
9. In February, Volatility has moved up sharply and tested highest levels (24.04) since demonetisation. Vix closed at 14.07 in this week
10. Options data for March series indicate highest Call Open Interest is now at the strike of 10800 whereas the highest Put build-up is at the strike of 10400. Thus Options data suggests a trading range with resistance at 10800 & support at 10400.
11. Global financial markets: Global stock markets ended the week on a negative note. 
12. FIIS are net sellers this week.