Nifty Weekly Analysis for the week ending 23 February 2018

Sensex opened the week at 34054, made a high of 34168, low of 33554 and closed the week at 34142. Thus it closed the week with a gain of 131 points (0.39%). At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 10489, made a high of 10499, low of 10303 and closed the week at 10491. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a gain of 39 points (0.37%).

Let us discuss few observations on last week/month Indian benchmark movements. 

1. On the daily charts, Sensex has formed a big Opening White body Marubuzo which is a bullish signal.  
2. On the weekly charts, Sensex has formed a white body Hammer formation and on Nifty, it has formed a Dragon-fly Doji signals trend reversal.
3. For Nifty strong resistance comes near 10613 level which is the high of engulfing bearish candle made on 16 Feb 2018.  Also 50d SMA also placed around 10610.  Next strong resistance for Nifty comes around 10830 level which is 61.8% retracement from the recent decline – 11171 to 10276.
4. Last week we have discussed “This is the third negative week after 8 positive weekly closing.  Indices made maximum 3 consecutive bearish weeks since December 2016.  So the data suggest coming week market should close positive”.  Market obeyed previous patterns and closed the week on a positive note.
5. On daily chart, Nifty closed above uptrending channel line connecting 28/09/17, 18/12/17.
6. Nifty still continues to remain in the 24-month long upward rising channel and has not shown any structural damage on the Charts, after the recent correction
7. The next week is a short one, with Friday, March 02, being a holiday on account of Holi
8. Options data for March series indicate highest Call Open Interest is now at the strike of 10700 whereas the highest Put build-up is at the strike of 10000. Thus Options data suggests a wide trading range with resistance at 10700 & support at 10000.
9. Vix further cooled of this week and closed at 14.2
10. Global financial markets: Global stock markets ended the week on a positive note.  FIIS are net sellers this week.  

Nifty Weekly Analysis for the week ending 16 February 2018

Sensex opened the week at 34203, made a high of 34535, low of 33957 and closed the week at 34011. Thus it closed the week with a minor gain of 5 points (0.02%). At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 10518, made a high of 10618, low of 10434 and closed the week at 10452. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a minor loss of 3 points (-0.03%).

Let us discuss few observations on last week/month Indian benchmark movements. 

1. On the weekly charts, both the indices made an inside bar candle.   Inside bar candle is a consolidation pattern, which can be either breakout  in same direction or reversal.  For Nifty, closing above 10703 favours bulls and further upmove expected in that case.   If closed below 10276 bears will take in charge and fall  will accelerate. 
2. This is the third negative week after 8 positive weekly closing.  Indices made maximum 3 consecutive bearish weeks since December 2016.  So the data suggest coming week market should close positive.
3. On daily chart Indices made a bearish engulfing candle on Friday. 
4. In 6 days from 29 Jan, Nifty made a fall of 896  point which is 79% retracement from 1033 to 11171.  Now Nifty on a pull back from 10276 to 10638.  In 7 days time Nifty made a retracement of 40%.
5. Options data for February series indicate highest Call Open Interest is now at the strike of 10600 whereas the highest Put build-up is at the strike of 10500. Thus Options data suggests on this expiry market should take support of 10500 level and 10600 will act as a strong resistance. 
6. Volatility has shot up this week and closed at 19.23 which is above previous year high. Vix cooled of this week and closed at 16.38. 
7. Last week I have mentioned “As Index fall too sharp, most of the oscillators went into oversold territory; to cool them off, index has to either go sideways or bounce up”.   Nifty moved up 362 points.  Weekly MACD sell triggered.  Weekly RSI, Stochastic are still in oversold territory. 
8. Global financial markets: Global stock markets ended the week on a positive note.  S&P500 registers biggest weekly gain in 5 years.
9. FIIS are net sellers this week.  

Nifty Weekly Analysis for the week ending 09 February 2018

Sensex opened the week at 34719, made a high of 34874, low of 33483 and closed the week at 34006 (-3.03%). Thus it closed the week with a loss of 1061 points. At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 10604, made a high of 10703, low of 10276 and closed the week at 10455. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a loss of 306 points (-2.84%).

Let us discuss few observations on last week/month Indian benchmark movements. 

1. On the weekly charts, both the indices opened with a Gap down and have formed a big black body candle which is in line with previous week bearish engulfing pattern. Weekly Open with a gap down is a bearish pattern which occurred earlier in August 2015.
2. This is the second negative week after 8 positive weekly closing.  Indices made maximum 3 consecutive bearish weeks since December 2016.
3. Weekly charts are suggesting strong bearishness in the near term. 
4. I have mentioned in my post dated 19^th January, Point no.1 “Market continued its rally for seventh straight week, conquering new milestones as Sensex made a new record highs of 35,511.58, while Nifty closed at all-time historic high at 10,894.70.  Since 2012 it is first time Indices made seven straight gains.   Considering the same situation Nifty can make a correction up to 10300-400 level.”.   Market already made the said level of correction.
5. On daily chart Nifty showing some pull back.  On Tuesday Nifty arrested its fall at 10276 and on remaining days Tuesday’s low protected.   By doing this bounce back Nifty reentered in bullish trendline connecting 28 Sep 2017, 6^th December 2017 & 18 December 2017. So considering the bounce back from this level, market is range bond to mildly positive till 10700-10800 level.  So protecting low and conquering 10700-10800 level would be big task for bulls for coming days and failure to do this could result another round of selloff targeting 10000 level which is coincide with 200 dma..
6. Time wise Indices took 39 days from 6^th December to achieve 1139 points.  This is the highest bullish swing move till December 2016. In 6 days from 29 Jan, Nifty made a fall of 896  point which is 79% retracement from 1033 to 11171. 
7. Open Interest PCR has dropped and is at a low of 0.87, which indicates strong bearishness. Options data for February series indicate highest Call Open Interest is now at the strike of 11100 whereas the highest Put build-up has shifted lower at the strike of 10000. Thus Options data suggests a wide trading range with resistance at 11100 & support at 10000.
8. Volatility has shot up this week and closed at 19.23 which is above previous year high. 
9. As Index fall too sharp, most of the oscillators went into oversold territory; to cool them off, index has to either go sideways or bounce up
10. Global financial markets: Global stock markets ended the week on a negative note. 
11. FIIS become net sellers this week.  

Nifty Weekly Analysis for the week ending 02 February 2018

Sensex opened the week at 36106, made a high of 36444, low of 35006 and closed the week at 35067. Thus it closed the week with a loss of 984 points (-2.73%). At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 11079, made a high of 11171, low of 10736 and closed the week at 10760. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a loss of 309 points (-2.79%).

Let us discuss few observations on last week/month Indian benchmark movements. 

1. On the weekly charts, both the indices have formed a Bearish Engulfing pattern. This is the first negative week after 8 positive weekly closing.
2. On the daily charts, both the indices have formed a “Long Black Day Candle”.
3. Thus daily as well as weekly charts suggest strong bearishness in the near term.
4. Indian Benchmarks made the worst single-day fall since August 2015.  Exactly after 2.5 years. This can be read together with point no.6 of my post dated 1^st December 2017 saying that “In December Indian Benchmark complete 22 months of bull market. Index topped every 2 years and made a good correction after that.  Let us look at the major reversals, in 1992 (-57%), 1994 (-39%), 1996 (-34%), 1998 (-36%),2000 (-58%), 2002 (-25%), 2004 (-33%), 2006 (-30%), 2008 (-64%), 2010 (-28%),2013 (-14%),2015 (-25%).   So time wise Indian benchmark is nearing its maturity for a correction.”.    Now Indian Benchmark on 24 months on bull market.
5. This week, both the indices breached and closed below the short term average of 20dma.  But still above the medium term average of 50dma and above the long term average of 200dma.  Thus the trend in short term timeframe turned bearish, whereas the trend in the medium term and long term timeframe continues to remain Bullish.
6. Time wise Indices took 39 days from 6^th December to achieve 1139 points.  This is the highest bullish swing move till December 2016. In 4 days from 29 Jan, Nifty made a fall of 436 point.  Biggest fall is made in Sept 2017; Nifty made a correction of 491 points in 8 days.  That time Nifty made a double bottom formation.  Considering that Nifty can go down until 10000 level.   Moving below 10000 level indicate serious trend reversal. 
7. In my last week post I have mentioned “Nifty P/E level reached 27.81 on Tuesday.  All-time high of Nifty P/E is 28.47 in 2000.  Same time Sensex P/E ratio reached at 26.34 on Wednesday. All-time high of Sensex P/E is 29.39 in June 2000.    As I mentioned last week Investors and Traders should take a careful approach of trading “.   Sensex lost around 4000 points within a quick span of one month during the 2008 financial crisis.
8.  Options data for February series indicate highest Call Open Interest is at the strike of 11500 whereas the highest Put build-up is at the strike of 10500. There is a huge addition of Open Interest at Call strike of 11,200, 11,000, 10,900 & 10,800.  There is a huge unwinding of Open Interest visible at put option strike 11000.  These indicate bearish undertone of the Market.  
9. On daily chart, MACD has given a fresh Sell signal. Thus Oscillators are suggesting a bearish bias for the near term
10. Global financial markets: Global stock markets ended the week on a negative note. 
11. In January, FIIS were net buyers.  It is after 5 months FIIS become buyers on monthly basis.    On Weekly basis also, FII are Buyers in Cash Segment.     At the same time DIIS buying is reduced.