Nifty Weekly Analysis for the week ending 16 June 2017

Key events happened during the week:

•  Fed hiked Interest rate
•  CPI and WPI data released indicating dip in inflation.
• GST Council has reduced the rates for 66 items and expanded the scope of the composition scheme for the benefit of small traders, manufacturers, and restaurateurs

Nifty opened the week at 9646.7 below last week closing, made a high of 9654.15, low of 9560.8  and closed the week at  9588.05. Thus it closed the week with a loss of 80 points (-0.084%).   This is the first time since April Nifty made a weekly lower low closing. 

First day of the week, Nifty traded on lacklustre note and ended with cut around half a per cent.  Nifty / Sensex made a bear candle and broke the bottom of  weekly long legged doji but maintained to close above that.  On Tuesday.   Nifty traded on a firm note for most part of the day but selling in last hour of trade dragged the markets lower to end in red.   Nifty made anther lower low on Wednesday but managed to close positive ahead of Fed policy..  On Thursday, Nifty opened positive, testing upper end of down trending channel and failed to break above the channel and made another lower low on daily chart.  On Friday, Made an inside candle, managed to protect the low but not able make the higher high.  Now Nifty reached near uptrending channel line support.   

Nifty made 368 points  in the upmove from (24 May to 6^th Jun) in 9 days and lost 91 points in the current down move in  (6^th Jun to 15 Jun) 7 days.  Protecting Friday’s low is important for bulls to gain strength.   Now Nifty is crucially near uptrending channel and obeying the 8 days down trending channel.   Market should break the prevailing trend decisively in order to gain further momentum.    I have mentioned in my earlier post, Nifty made ELB (Engulfing Line Bear) candle on Tuesday 06^th June.  ELB is a short term reversal pattern.  Last seven days Nifty is making lower high.   For further upmove Nifty should close above ELB high. 

Oscillators are showing in oversold region and Nifty near its channel bottom.  So both of these combinations give us a probability of moving up than moving down.

Options data for June series indicate highest Call Open Interest is at the strike of 9700 and highest Put build-up is at 9500.

FIIS/DIIS Data:

FIIS were net sellers in Indian Market and DIIS were net buyers. 

Global Indices:

Majority of Global Indices  ended the week on negative note.