On the Monthly Chart Nifty opened the month at 9603.55,
made a high of 9709.3, low of 9448.75 and closed the month at 9520.9. Thus made a monthly loss of 100 points (1%). Nifty / Sensex made a halt after 5
consecutive monthly bullish candle and made bearish candle for the first time
since December 2016.
Nifty opened the week at 9594.05, made a high of
9615.4, low of 9448.75 and closed the
week at 9520.9. Thus it closed the week
with a loss of 54 points (-0.57%). Nifty
made3 consecutive bearish candle for the first time since December 2016.
On Daily Chart, Nifty formed white body candle on
last day of the week, made a low of 9448.75 and managed to close above psychological 9500
mark.
Last week we discussed “Nifty now is in a crucial
Juncture for further upmove :. Nifty should close above 20 day moving average.
As two is the maximum number of weekly bearish candle, coming week is very
crucial for upside reversal. Nifty should
protect previous week low (9565.3) and retrace the previous two week candles in
fast”.
Nifty made a pull back on first day of the week, but
not able to sustain more than 5 minutes and not able to protect previous week
low (9565.3). Action formed the biggest
bear candle in 2017 and created a third weekly lower low for the first time
since December 2016. Nifty not able to
close above 20 day moving average.
Different from previous months Nifty didn’t move up
in the last week on month.
Weakness was shown in daily, weekly & monthly
chart as well. First time since
December 2016 Nifty made a bearish candle in monthly time frame.
In the last two corrections, market not fall more
than 200 points. In April 198 points and
in May 191 point correction. But this
time market made a 261 point correction for the first time since December 2016.
Fall is getting bigger in magnitude is
a sign of deceleration in upward momentum.
In the earlier rally, from the bottom of February 2016,
Nifty made 2143 points and made fall of
1075 points. 50% retracement on time
wise and pricewise. On the current rally from December 2016, Nifty made 1815
points, short of 327 points compared to previous up leg. Time wise current rally from December 2016
took more compared to previous upleg from February 2016. Rise is getting smaller is also a sign of
reduced upward momentum.
The entire upmove from February 2017 occurred in a
clear up trending channel. Nifty
breached the lower boundary of this uptrending channel.
There is a clear inter-sectorial divergence between
Nifty and Midcap / Small Cap Indices. Midcap
and smallcap indices made a 3% correction in May. But Nifty formed a new life time high in
June, but Midcap and smallcap indices failed to follow Nifty.
Daily Oscillators are turning up from oversold region. In the same time monthly and weekly
oscillators are turning down from overbought region.
Options data for July series indicate highest Call
Open Interest is at the strike of 9700 and highest Put build-up is at 9400. Compared
to 9700CE there are significantly more OI at 9400PE. OI as a contrarian Indication, highest put oi
suggest favourable for the market.
FIIS/DIIS Data:
FIIS were net sellers in Indian Market and DIIS were
net buyers.
Global Indices:
Almost all major Global Indices ended the week lower.
By looking at
the OI data and daily Oscillator, market will be range bound to positive in the
coming days. So a major fall is not
expected in coming week. Protecting Frday's low of 9448.75 is crucial for bulls for further upmove. Medium term average - 50 day ema at 9464. Next support seen near 9341 level which is previous swing low. Major support stand in region of 8950-9000
level. 38.2% Febo retracement at 9020
level. Previous swing high (swing from
April 2016 to September 2016) is 8969. Also there was gap up was formed after UP
election, in the range of 8975 to 9060.
Major uptrendline (connecting April 2016 low and 30 December 2016 low)
is around 8975 level.
No comments:
Post a Comment