Friday, 14 July 2017

Nifty Weekly Analysis for the week ending 14 July 2017

Major News of the week:

  • Sebi restricts use of P-Note derivatives
  • Technical glitch hits trading at National Stock Exchange
  • TCS / Infosys quarterly result



Nifty opened the week at 9719.3, made a high of 9913.3, low of 9646.45  and closed the week at  9886.35 with a gain of 221 points 2.23%).   Nifty closed well above the previous swing high of 9709.3.   Since made biggest weekly candle since March 2017

Options data for July series indicate highest Call Open Interest is at the strike of 9900/10000 and highest Put build-up has shifted upwards and is at 9700/9600.

Global Indices  : The Dow and S&P 500 hit record highs on Friday after weak economic data dulled prospects of more interest rate hikes this year

Last week we discussed “Also the highest open interest built up in 9,700 strike, which means that this level will offer a strong resistance and unwinding of 9700CE OI, can lead more bullish move with a target of 9800 to 9900 level”.  Huge unwinding was seen at 9700ce and higher OI shifted to 10000CE.   On Fridy nifty reached our target level of 9900 level.

Nifty made a 53 point gap-up opening above the previous record high on first day of the week.  Action made a Bullish Hammer type candle.   Nifty made higher high through out the week. On Friday, Nifty witnessed minor profit booking and made a bear candle with long shadow in the bottom.

In April Nifty made a correction of 198 point fall and retraced fully and raised 457 points.  Similarly Nifty corrected 261 points and retraced fully and raised 465 points.  It take 18 days for fall and 6 days to retrace fully. Faster retracement means the correction is the part of the uptrend and showing overall bullishness of the market.  Huge Open Interest added to 9900 PE option, as a contrarian, which indicate bullishness of the market.

Looking to the past nifty movement since December 2016, after a 400-500 points upmove usually there could be a correction around 200 points.  Daily Oscillators are now in overbought sold.  Nifty nearing Trendline channel resistance.

In the coming week, the 9,700 level should act as good support.  Highest open interest cumulated at 9700 and 9600 level.  All the previous correction made a correction near 200 points.  In that case a correction of 200 points which is in the region of  9700 level.   9700 level was previous swing high and was a strong resistance.  Now previous resistance become support.   10000 level could act as a good resistance.  I have mentioned in my post dated 3rd June “In the earlier rally from March 2016, on first 5 months Nifty  made 1813 points and on the current rally from December 2016, Nifty made 1727 points, short of 85 points.  So it is almost achieved price wise. Earlier rally from March 2016 long for 6 months.  So if it achieve price wise compared to earlier rally Nifty will reach in a price target of 10037 level.”

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